Congrats to Silicon Valley's Trump Supporters. Here's to Hoping He Is Who You Think He Is.

Last night was a big victory for Silicon Valley Trumpists. Here's to hoping they don't get their faces ripped off.

Just a few days ago, I was door knocking for Kamala Harris in Philadelphia. I endorsed her in this newsletter. I opposed Trump after the attempted assassination at peak pro-Trump euphoria. So needless to say, I’m very disappointed by how the election turned out.

I was looking forward to a normal political environment where we wouldn’t face regular existential questions about the survival of our democracy.

Unfortunately, Donald Trump swamped Harris last night. It’s a huge victory for Elon Musk, Shaun Maguire, Keith Rabois, Jacob Helberg, Joe Lonsdale, Palmer Luckey, Marc Andreessen, David Sacks, the All-In Podcast, Founders Fund, and everyone else in Silicon Valley who enthusiastically jumped on the Trump train. This summer, I mocked the Andreessen Horowitz founders for making a late stage bet on Trump but I guess like some of their growth stage deals, they bought high only for the haters to watch a16z’s bets soar higher.

While I’ve loathed Silicon Valley’s Trump embrace, I have to say that waking up this morning I’m glad that at least some of Silicon Valley has its talons into Trump.

I texted a couple of Silicon Valley rightists congratulations this morning. Maguire wrote back, “I want you to know I’ll fight for sanity and a moderate take on most issues.”

I hope Maguire and crew are as influential as they think they are.

Readers, I’m sure some of you are happy as well. I hope things turn out like you imagined they would. To the rest of you, I share your grave disappointment.

I commiserated this morning with Rippling CEO Parker Conrad, a likeminded political soul. He said he was game to put his thoughts on the record.

“My personal view is that a lot of smart people are being very stupid and believe that Trump is going to do THEIR thing,” Conrad texted me. “Tech people think he will usher in new, tech-forward, business friendly environment. Kooky fluoride conspiracy theorists think he’s gonna take care of that thing. Etc.”

That is the rub: which Trump is about to become president?

“I think they will all be disappointed when their faces get ripped off,” Conrad texted. “It’s weird because Trump being elected feels like the end of the world but there are all these very smart people who I like and respect who think it’s gonna be the best thing ever. So, 🤷. I hope they are right.”

I share Conrad’s sentiments: I respect many of tech’s Trump supporters. But last time around, Trump did not prove to be the centrist some hoped he would be coming into office. He almost exclusively worked with Republicans in Congress. He cut taxes like a normal Chamber of Commerce Republican. Yes thankfully, he listened to the business community and fast-tracked Covid vaccines (only to downplay that victory during the election). But he appointed judges that overturned Roe vs. Wade. And of course he refused to accept defeat in the election, has threatened the press and his political opponents, and has generally carried himself like an authoritarian leader.

Like last time, we are faced with the question of what this Trump presidency will be. Is his administration going to round up immigrants and force them out of the country? Or is Trump going to make space exploration the center of a new pro-business, anti-regulation culture? Will Trump want the right things and will he get what he wants? Both vectors are uncertain at the moment. Unlike last time, we’ve seen a Trump presidency: he did not moderate, he leaned into many of his worst instincts, and he mostly listened to very conservative voices. I’m not sure why anyone thinks this time will be different.

However, I don’t think the media and the Democrats should allow ourselves to be a constant antagonistic foil that he can blame for his bad behavior. I don’t think we are returning to the resistance lib era. Unfortunately, Trump has a mandate to govern.

Rabois told me that he hoped Trump would prioritize combatting antisemitism and ending any U.S. support for Iran. He wrote, “This administration has been actively hostile to innovation, so just stopping that garbage will be productive.” He added that he wanted Trump to stop illegal immigration and restore the rule of law.

The next Trump administration could be very good for business — if isolationism, tariffs, nationalism, anti-immigrant policies, and sloppy, unethical decision-making don’t get in the way. And if Trump moves on from abortion and other social issues and makes business growth his political identity, that could be good for the country and his legacy. While America is outperforming Europe, we should aim for a much more vital economy. The stock market and crypto currencies have already responded positively to Trump’s election. It seems clear that the M&A environment under Trump will be friendlier than under the last administration. Artificial intelligence companies are much less likely to get jammed up by the new administration. There will be fewer threats of onerous, anti-investor tax increases. Trump is not going to encourage the growth of unions.

Of course, if Trump really goes through with his high tariffs, they could destabilize the economy and swamp other pro-business moves. And any moves toward authoritarianism would, of course, be terrible, regardless of their near-term impact on stock prices.

I want America to succeed. I am highly skeptical that Trump is a step in the right direction. I hope Silicon Valley pulls every lever it can to push Trump toward tech’s vision for his presidency. But I think his tech supporters have made a tremendous mistake. I’d love to be proven wrong.

A Couple Stray Thoughts

• So far things are looking good in San Francisco for tech-backed moderates. Left-wing mayoral candidate Aaron Peskin is in third so far rank-choice voting behind moderates Daniel Lurie and London Breed. (Tech favorite Mark Farrell came fourth.) GrowthSF candidates are ahead in four out of six board of supervisor races. But the outcomes could still shift. Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan is declaring victory. He texted me, “Moderates have retaken SF and now it’s time to rebuild. All the abundance from tech has to actually improve the lives of the citizens of the city and the region and the only way that happens is good governance that turns back the decades of cronyism and incompetence that has plagued this most beautiful city.”

• I think it’s too soon to say what this election says about Democrats and Harris’s strategy. Globally incumbents have done poorly. Trump is winning very decisively here. This election seems to be about big themes that transcend Harris’s positioning on Gaza or whether she went on Joe Rogan’s podcast.

• I am very uncertain where I fit into the media trend lines here. Lulu Cheng Meservey texted me, “Going direct wins elections.” Trump’s victory would seem to be very good for Bari Weiss’ Free Press and Mike Solana’s Pirate Wires. They get the moment. Andreessen Horowitz’s Katherine Boyle wrote, “Mainstream media lost this election. Rogan won it.” I’d generally agree with that. This newsletter is obviously in some ways bucking mainstream media. It’s independent. But at the same time, I try to avoid the contrarianism, heavy-handed heterodoxy, and tolerance for Trump’s authoritarian tendencies that other elite indie outlets can sometimes embrace.

• Coming out of this election with Trumpism ascendant, I’m committing myself to taking a very hardline approach on free speech — both in terms of saying what I’m thinking and ensuring that I am still able to say what I think. One thing that frustrated me about conservatives during the pandemic and the woke period is that they constantly professed that they were being censored without really saying what they couldn’t say. Maybe Twitter was censoring them around the edges but they were certainly free to opine in newsletters, on the web, or elsewhere. Second-order discussions of things like Hunter Biden’s laptop censorship and covid misinformation policing always seemed fair game even on Twitter. Still conservatives mostly held their tongues about specifics in public as they moaned about free speech. Much of the strength of authoritarianism is preemptive compliance. That’s where I intend to draw a hard line. If there’s any one thing I love about going independent and running my own publication it’s that I can say exactly what I want. You’ll have to lock me up to get me to stop doing that. And I do have faith in the Silicon Valley Trumpists that I know that they wouldn’t stay quiet if there was really censorship. But I do think Trump support requires a level of self-censorship about your quibbles with him that is not the case on the Democratic side. And that impulse really troubles me. Meservey and company can advocate for businesses to speak their minds and lead with their values but right now we are seeing the likes of Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg giving very bland, compliant motions of support for Trump. That’s more fealty than I’m comfortable with in a democracy.

• Americans are hungry for meaning. Supporting Trump seems fun. It gives people a cause. They get to lean into positive emotions and meme. As an outsider, it feels nihilistic. But in a world where Democrats are constantly whining about the rules, Trump gives Americans license to let loose and not worry so much. I think if Democrats are going to rebound they are going to need to offer a much clearer source of meaning — akin to what in the past someone would have gotten at church — and I don’t think equity and equal outcomes are particularly motivating or foundational American virtues.

• I’m somewhat apprehensive that I’m rewarding Silicon Valley Trumpists for making a “good bet” on Trump. I think people should vote based on their principles not based on some calculus as to the likely outcome and how much your support on either side would benefit you personally. But obviously if you want to wield power, there is some strategic calculus in public endorsements. And I’m sure many of the Trump supporters have convinced themselves that they found themselves in a situation where they could make a strategic bet that aligned with their beliefs. Maybe so.

• Never bet against Elon.