Silicon Valley's Trump Embrace

My thoughts on Silicon Valley's love affair with Trump

“Kinda depressing that so many VCs are willing to risk the core institutions of American government to loosen up the M&A markets,” one founder friend texted me. “I don’t like Lina Khan either but I also think the integrity of democratic elections is more important?”

I too am troubled that so many Silicon Valley leaders are racing to embrace Trump, as if the assassination attempt somehow made him a different man from the bully and convicted felon we know all too well.

You probably saw that Elon Musk endorsed Trump the day of the shooting. David Sacks just spoke at the Republican National Convention, dissing San Francisco and accusing Biden of provoking the war in Ukraine. Joe Lonsdale is helping to lead a pro-Trump Super Pac, with financial support from Sequoia’s Doug Leone and Shaun Maguire.

We learned this week that Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz plan to back a Trump PAC.

And of course Trump’s decision to pick Peter Thiel protege J.D. Vance as his vice president is only going to bring Silicon Valley investors closer to Trump world.

Trump is signaling via the Republican platform that he’s friendly to crypto and space investment, and hostile to artificial intelligence regulation — all important niche issues for Silicon Valley VCs. One of the two pieces of legislation he’s planning when he comes into office is extending his 2017 tax cut, which is very popular with the investor class. And the culture war is real: pockets of Silicon Valley are extremely resentful of the woke politics that swept America during the pandemic. Musk just said a California trans rights bill was the “last straw” and X and SpaceX would now move out of California.

I’ve been watching all this unfold with a pit in my stomach. Readers are asking what I think of the situation.

As painful as it is for me to say, I can see why this is happening.

President Joe Biden looks old and feeble. I, like many Democrats, think Biden should drop out of the presidential race. I wouldn’t put any money on Biden to win. So from a pure pragmatic standpoint, cozying up to Trump — the guy who relishes fealty and who looks like the odds-on favorite to win — has a grim logic to it.

The Biden administration’s crackdown on big tech acquisitions has been brutal for startups. While Trump’s new VP has been hostile to big tech and has supported FTC chair Lina Khan’s strict antitrust review, it’s hard to believe the Trump administration could be more unfriendly to acquisitions than the current administration. And of course with Trump there’s a sense that if you’re cozy with him, you’re going to get better treatment. (Consider Trump’s flipflop on TikTok, with all signs pointing toward major TikTok shareholder and political donor Jeffrey Yass.)

Trump seems much less interested in raising capital gains taxes or taxing unrealized gains — two fairly existential issues for Silicon Valley’s investor class.

But fundamentally those things are only acceptable if you think Trump will otherwise be a stable, effective force as the most powerful person in the world. Trump has a Lucy with a football quality — every time it looks like he might change, that he might pivot to the middle and do something more measured, he disappoints. Now with Vance at his side and with Silicon Valley titans whispering in his ear, some of Silicon Valley elites seem to believe he’ll rise to the occasion.

There’s an odd inversion in that supporting Trump, the billionaire’s champion, can now feel rebellious and counterculture. The media, academics, non-profit leaders, and other establishment types clearly want people to hold the line on democracy and the peaceful transfer of power and vote against Trump, no matter how old and slow Biden might look. But this isn’t 2016. People are not going to be shamed out of voting for Trump as they might have been before. Silicon Valley Trump supporters might even feel independent-minded for doing it.

The case for Trump is totally misguided and unprincipled.

First and foremost, the top priority for any business leader should be the stability of our democratic political system. Move fast and break things works well for startups since the world isn’t counting on any one of them to succeed. But we can’t take the same cavalier attitude toward our country. What America has going is unique and wonderful. This is the best, most productive country on Earth. Why risk all that?

Trump has already shown he’s willing to deny election results and refuse to hand over power when defeated, instead stirring his supporters into a violent froth and sending them to wreak havoc in the Capitol. This should not be so easily forgiven. It seems likely that a second Trump administration would be much more capable of ripping out experienced bureaucrats and replacing them with Trump-loving toadies. The judiciary has already been tainted by Trump’s political appointments.

Trump serves as a terrible cultural and moral role model for our country. His might makes right attitude is trickling into the water in Silicon Valley. We need to hold onto a culture of cooperation and mutual success. The favoritism that Trump supporters expect to receive will ultimately degrade America’s way of doing business in the long run.

There are also the social policy issues that are literally life-and-death matters, with abortion at the top of the list. Trump is responsible for having Roe vs. Wade overturned. His vice presidential pick is totally opposed to abortion access. It’s hard to believe that he is truly moderating on the issue (and we have a lot of work to do in reversing the damage he’s already wrought.)

Perhaps most troubling is Trump’s hostility toward immigrants. Passing a broad security and immigration package seems to be his top priority coming into the White House. During his first administration Trump suspended new H-1B visas. Yes, Trump went on the All-In Podcast last month and said that he would support giving green cards to immigrants educated in American colleges. Hours later, though, Trump backtracked in a campaign statement, saying that would only apply “to the most thoroughly vetted college graduates who would never undercut American wages or workers.” It was another Lucy and the football moment. Silicon Valley, built and in many cases run by immigrants, should not be on the side of populism, isolationism, and hate-mongering.

There’s an irony that many of the venture capitalists who see themselves as forward-thinking, early stage investors are betting on Trump now that he’s got momentum. This is a late stage investment if I’ve ever seen one.

Silicon Valley Democrats and other Trump doubters need to do a much better job of finding their spines and a winning message. (A better candidate would certainly help that.) Democrats should be running on a thriving America: The Biden economy has been strong. Tech stocks have been on a tear. Life under president Biden, except for a brief global bout of inflation, has been pretty good.

Reid Hoffman, who has had a couple missteps lately, is Silicon Valley’s most vocal pro-Biden voice. At least he’s trying. Silicon Valley can’t let Musk and the All-In crew define its political identity. I still think the majority of tech workers oppose Trump. They need to be much louder about it.

The election is still months away. Silicon Valley is predicated on believing we can do what seems impossible.

We shouldn’t sacrifice our principles and our country just because a bully says he wants to be our friend.